Rules & Odds
A quick guide to how scoring works, how ties are broken, and what the win odds mean.
How scoring works
Each category is worth the number of points shown on the ballot.
If your pick matches a recorded winner for that category, you earn those points.
If a category ends with multiple winners, any pick that matches one of those winners still scores.
Tie-breakers
If two or more players have the same score, ties are broken in the following order:
- Higher number of correct picks
- Higher difficulty picks (based on odds from Gold Derby)
- Earlier submission time (get your picks in early😈)
What odds mean
Odds represent the current likelihood of a player finishing first.
Displayed win odds include possible ties.
Category odds
These are the current Gold Derby-based odds for each nominee in each category.
Actor in a Leading Role
Michael B. Jordan
Sinners
54.7%
Timothee Chalamet
Marty Supreme
31.6%
Wagner Moura
The Secret Agent
10.5%
Leonardo DiCaprio
One Battle after Another
2.2%
Ethan Hawke
Blue Moon
1.1%
Actor in a Supporting Role
Sean Penn
One Battle after Another
67.7%
Stellan Skarsgard
Sentimental Value
22.9%
Delroy Lindo
Sinners
7.5%
Jacob Elordi
Frankenstein
1.5%
Benicio Del Toro
One Battle after Another
0.5%
Actress in a Leading Role
Jessie Buckley
Hamnet
97.0%
Rose Byrne
If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
2.1%
Renate Reinsve
Sentimental Value
0.4%
Emma Stone
Bugonia
0.4%
Kate Hudson
Song Sung Blue
<0.1%
Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Madigan
Weapons
53.6%
Teyana Taylor
One Battle after Another
22.4%
Wunmi Mosaku
Sinners
22.2%
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas
Sentimental Value
1.6%
Elle Fanning
Sentimental Value
0.2%
Animated Feature Film
KPop Demon Hunters
Maggie Kang, Chris Appelhans and Michelle L.M. Wong
95.1%
Zootopia 2
Jared Bush, Byron Howard and Yvett Merino
3.2%
Little Amelie or the Character of Rain
Maïlys Vallade, Liane-Cho Han, Nidia Santiago and Henri Magalon
0.9%
Arco
Ugo Bienvenu, Félix de Givry, Sophie Mas and Natalie Portman
0.6%
Elio
Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina and Mary Alice Drumm
0.3%
Animated Short Film
Butterfly
Florence Miailhe and Ron Dyens
74.5%
The Girl Who Cried Pearls
Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski
15.8%
Retirement Plan
John Kelly and Andrew Freedman
5.0%
Forevergreen
Nathan Engelhardt and Jeremy Spears
3.8%
The Three Sisters
Konstantin Bronzit
0.9%
Casting
Sinners
Francine Maisler
90.1%
The Secret Agent
Gabriel Domingues
3.9%
One Battle after Another
Cassandra Kulukundis
3.7%
Marty Supreme
Jennifer Venditti
1.5%
Hamnet
Nina Gold
0.7%
Cinematography
Sinners
Autumn Durald Arkapaw
44.8%
One Battle after Another
Michael Bauman
38.3%
Train Dreams
Adolpho Veloso
16.2%
Frankenstein
Dan Laustsen
0.5%
Marty Supreme
Darius Khondji
0.1%
Costume Design
Frankenstein
Kate Hawley
93.7%
Sinners
Ruth E. Carter
4.9%
Hamnet
Malgosia Turzanska
1.0%
Marty Supreme
Miyako Bellizzi
0.2%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Deborah L. Scott
0.2%
Directing
Paul Thomas Anderson
One Battle after Another
94.7%
Ryan Coogler
Sinners
4.2%
Chloe Zhao
Hamnet
0.6%
Joachim Trier
Sentimental Value
0.2%
Josh Safdie
Marty Supreme
0.2%
Documentary Feature Film
The Perfect Neighbor
Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne, Nikon Kwantu and Sam Bisbee
83.6%
Mr. Nobody against Putin
David Borenstein, Pavel Talankin, Helle Faber and Alžběta Karásková
12.2%
The Alabama Solution
Andrew Jarecki and Charlotte Kaufman
2.9%
Come See Me in the Good Light
Ryan White, Jessica Hargrave, Tig Notaro and Stef Willen
1.1%
Cutting through Rocks
Sara Khaki and Mohammadreza Eyni
0.2%
Documentary Short Film
All the Empty Rooms
Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones
85.7%
Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
Craig Renaud and Juan Arredondo
9.6%
The Devil Is Busy
Christalyn Hampton and Geeta Gandbhir
3.2%
Children No More: Were and Are Gone
Hilla Medalia and Sheila Nevins
1.0%
Perfectly a Strangeness
Alison McAlpine
0.5%
Film Editing
One Battle after Another
Andy Jurgensen
88.9%
F1
Stephen Mirrione
6.8%
Sinners
Michael P. Shawver
3.1%
Marty Supreme
Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
0.9%
Sentimental Value
Olivier Bugge Coutté
0.3%
International Feature Film
Sentimental Value
Norway
71.9%
The Secret Agent
Brazil
25.9%
It Was Just an Accident
France
1.6%
The Voice of Hind Rajab
Tunisia
0.5%
Sirāt
Spain
0.1%
Live Action Short Film
A Friend of Dorothy
Lee Knight and James Dean
52.8%
Two People Exchanging Saliva
Alexandre Singh and Natalie Musteata
36.4%
The Singers
Sam A. Davis and Jack Piatt
8.7%
Jane Austen's Period Drama
Julia Aks and Steve Pinder
1.4%
Butcher's Stain
Meyer Levinson-Blount and Oron Caspi
0.7%
Makeup and Hairstyling
Frankenstein
Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cliona Furey
96.4%
Sinners
Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine and Shunika Terry
2.4%
The Ugly Stepsister
Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg
0.7%
Kokuho
Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino and Tadashi Nishimatsu
0.5%
The Smashing Machine
Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin and Bjoern Rehbein
<0.1%
Music (Original Score)
Frankenstein
Alexandre Desplat
91.2%
Sinners
Ludwig Goransson
7.3%
Hamnet
Max Richter
0.9%
One Battle after Another
Jonny Greenwood
0.1%
Bugonia
Jerskin Fendrix
0.0%
Music (Original Song)
Golden
from KPop Demon Hunters; Music and Lyric by EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seo and Teddy Park
90.0%
I Lied To You
from Sinners; Music and Lyric by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Goransson
9.3%
Dear Me
from Diane Warren: Relentless; Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
0.4%
Train Dreams
from Train Dreams; Music by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner; Lyric by Nick Cave
0.2%
Sweet Dreams Of Joy
from Viva Verdi!; Music and Lyric by Nicholas Pike
<0.1%
Best Picture
One Battle after Another
Adam Somner, Sara Murphy and Paul Thomas Anderson, Producers
76.2%
Sinners
Zinzi Coogler, Sev Ohanian and Ryan Coogler, Producers
21.1%
Hamnet
Liza Marshall, Pippa Harris, Nicolas Gonda, Steven Spielberg and Sam Mendes, Producers
1.1%
The Secret Agent
Emilie Lesclaux, Producer
0.6%
Sentimental Value
Maria Ekerhovd and Andrea Berentsen Ottmar, Producers
0.3%
Train Dreams
Marissa McMahon, Teddy Schwarzman, Will Janowitz, Ashley Schlaifer and Michael Heimler, Producers
0.3%
Frankenstein
Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale and Scott Stuber, Producers
0.2%
Marty Supreme
Eli Bush, Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie, Anthony Katagas and Timothée Chalamet, Producers
0.2%
Bugonia
Ed Guiney & Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos, Emma Stone and Lars Knudsen, Producers
<0.1%
F1
Chad Oman, Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Joseph Kosinski and Jerry Bruckheimer, Producers
<0.1%
Production Design
Sinners
Production Design: Hannah Beachler; Set Decoration: Monique Champagne
96.9%
One Battle after Another
Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino
2.0%
Hamnet
Production Design: Fiona Crombie; Set Decoration: Alice Felton
0.5%
Frankenstein
Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
0.3%
Marty Supreme
Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis
0.3%
Sound
F1
Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo and Juan Peralta
87.8%
Sinners
Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor and Steve Boeddeker
8.6%
Sirāt
Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas and Yasmina Praderas
2.9%
One Battle after Another
José Antonio García, Christopher Scarabosio and Tony Villaflor
0.4%
Frankenstein
Greg Chapman, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke and Brad Zoern
0.2%
Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett
94.8%
Sinners
Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter and Donnie Dean
4.1%
F1
Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington and Keith Dawson
0.9%
Jurassic World Rebirth
David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan and Neil Corbould
0.1%
The Lost Bus
Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen and Brandon K. McLaughlin
<0.1%
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
One Battle after Another
Written by Paul Thomas Anderson
95.0%
Hamnet
Screenplay by Chloé Zhao & Maggie O'Farrell
4.0%
Train Dreams
Screenplay by Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar
0.4%
Frankenstein
Written for the Screen by Guillermo del Toro
0.3%
Bugonia
Screenplay by Will Tracy
0.2%
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Sinners
Written by Ryan Coogler
96.4%
Sentimental Value
Written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier
2.2%
Marty Supreme
Written by Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie
0.7%
It Was Just an Accident
Written by Jafar Panahi; Script collaborators - Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian
0.6%
Blue Moon
Written by Robert Kaplow
0.1%